THE rate at which migration is happening, especially in the young and middle-aged population, could cripple Zimbabwe’s economy when its population growth reaches below replacement levels, experts have warned.
By Michael Gwarisa
The call follows findings from the State of the World Population (SOWP) Report which was conducted by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and shows that the world population has reached 8 Billion amidst indications that Zimbabwe is a youthful country, with more than 60 percent of the population under the age of 25.
According to the UNFPA, while Zimbabwe’s population is still above the replacement level of 2.1, more needs to be done to create an environment that encourages young people to stay.
UNFPA Zimbabwe Deputy Country Representative, Dr. Gulnara Kadryrykulova told a media briefing to mark World Population Day as well as the launch of the State of the World Population (SOWP) Report that it was not too late for the government to create opportunities for young people and curb the high migration, drug abuse and mortality due to other factors.
The replacement level is 2.1 to sustain the population. In Zimbabwe, it’s 2.4, which means Zimbabwe is above the replacement level. However, we need to look at the three factors that affect the number of population. The first one is fertility, fatality or mortality and migration. If you look at Zimbabwe, it’s not just about looking at the fertility level, it’s looking at fatality. What is killing the young people? Some are dying because of HIV some because of road traffic accidents and some because of drug abuse. We need to address that. That is where we can preserve the labour force.
“When you look at the migration, we need to put opportunities for young people so that they don’t migrate. There is no brain drain in the country, we just need to look at the issue from a holistic approach and ensure that there are measures in place to create opportunities for young people,” said Dr Kadryrykulova.
Over the years, data has shown that Zimbabwe’s youthful population size was growing bigger. The 2014 Human Development Report stated that by year 2013, Zimbabwe was a youthful country, with approximately 67.7 percent of the 13 million total population that was recorded then being those under the age of 35.
According to the 2022 Population and Housing Census data, Zimbabwe witnessed an annula population growth rate of 1.5 percent. Zimbabwe’s population was at 7.5 million people in 1982 and the latest statistics shows that it has taken 40 years for Zimbabwe’s population to double. Population and demographics experts believe at the current population growth rate, it will take Zimbabwe probably about 15 years to double to about 30 million people.
Mr Edward Kallon, the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Zimbabwe said the only way to regulate migration was through creating an environment that attracts young people to stay.
“Migration is due to several factors. What I have seen looking at the irregular migration into South Africa from Zimbabwe is that there are so many economic factors that are considered during migration. People are making decisions based on the situation at home. They say if I cannot earn a living in my country, why do I have to stay, I have to move? What is critical is how we can influence irregular migration to become more regular and organized migration where the rights of migrants are respected and protected,” said Mr Kallon.
He mentioned the recent Zimbabwe/Rwanda teachers migration, where Zimbabwe sent teachers to Rwanda through an agreement between the two governments.
Meanwhile, Population and Demographic Expert, Professor Marvellous Mhloyi has said during a virtual meeting to disseminate the 2022 Population Census Results that, unlike other first-world countries where countries have already reached non-population replacement levels and are importing labour from poor and developing nations, Zimbabwe does not have the capacity to invite expatriate or emigrant labour to fill in the gaps
“What we need to note as Zimbabweans is that while the developed countries are benefiting from our young populations and they are importing our young people to the Western Countries, the question is, what will happen in Zimbabwe should our population go below replacement levels as is happening in the developed nations? Where will we get the labour from? The developed nations have benefited from importing labour from us largely because we have a young population and our economies are not necessarily that stable and we have that excess population,” said Professor Mhloyi.
She added that while Zimbabwe’s youthful population size was growing bigger, fertility was decreasing and at the same time, migration was on the rise and this according to Prof Mhloyi does not benefit Zimbabwe in any way.
“The challenge that we have is that indeed, we are having a demographic transition in Zimbabwe, but this demographic transition is unprecedented. It is unprecedented in the sense that normally or in the developed world, the demographic transition was driven by decreasing fertility and decreasing mortality.
“Now in our country Zimbabwe, we have had very high mortality in the late-80s to the mid-90s from HIV and AIDS and we kind of recovered and then we had the COVID-19 though it did not have such a demographic impact such as the HIV and AIDS pandemic. But we are having mortality which is not necessarily decreasing to the level of the developed nations which have gone past many countries. Fertility is declining but migration is increasing significantly and the migration which is occurring is of those who are of middle age.”
She added that by the time Zimbabwe reaches those non-replacement or low levels of population growth stages, it won’t be able to import any labour from anywhere.
