By Michael Gwarisa
Sixteen months after the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) declared Mpox a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (PHECS), the Emergency Consultative Group (ECG) is set to meet this week to decide whether the outbreak should be lifted as a PHECS or maintained.
This follows months of surveillance and monitoring, with data suggesting the outbreak is steadily declining as countries intensify case detection, treatment services and community outreach in affected hotspots. According to Africa CDC, confirmed cases fell from a peak six-week average of 1,442 during Safeguarding Africa’s Health Week 17 to 22 in 2025 to 231 cases in the last six weeks covering Week 43 to 48 in 2025. This represents an 84 percent decline across the continent.
During this reporting period, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) contributed 25 percent of all confirmed cases. Liberia followed with 20 percent, Ghana with 12 percent, Kenya with 11 percent, Burundi and Guinea each with 7 percent, Uganda with 7 percent and Nigeria with 3.2 percent. Combined, these countries accounted for more than 92 percent of all confirmed infections.
Professor Yap Boum, the Deputy Head of the Incident Management Support Team (IMST) in the DRC, told journalists during the Africa CDC Weekly Media Brief that the ECG convened on December 10, 2025 to review the latest epidemiological data.
“So all this data has been presented to the Emergency Consultative Group. It is critical to highlight that even as we move forward, we still have Mpox,” said Professor Boum.
He explained that the ECG is composed of 14 scientists and public health experts who have examined all available evidence to assess whether Mpox still warrants PHECS status. With cases and deaths having fallen by more than 90 percent across the continent, experts believe the situation may be shifting toward a controlled phase.
“The ECG will decide by the end of this week whether Mpox should be maintained or lifted as a public health emergency of continental security. However, this does not mean Mpox is over,” he added.
Africa CDC reports that transmission has decreased in most high-burden countries. Significant declines have been recorded in the DRC, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Kenya, Liberia and Ghana. However, increases have been observed in Burundi and Nigeria. These rises appear to be confined to localised settings and may reflect recently re-ignited transmission rather than widespread resurgence. Namibia and Rwanda remain stable at very low levels of activity.
On 21 November 2025, Mali’s Directorate General of Public Health confirmed a new Mpox case in the Kangaba Health Area in the Kourémalé Health Zone of Koulikoro Region. An IMST team has since been deployed to support the Ministry of Health with initial response measures.
Professor Boum said even if isolated surges occur, most African countries now have stronger systems to respond. National Public Health Institutes in countries such as Sierra Leone, Liberia and the DRC have strengthened surveillance, laboratory capacity and outbreak response skills, reducing dependence on emergency-level coordination.
Africa CDC, member states and partners have also developed a Transition Roadmap that outlines how Mpox will shift from emergency response structures to routine public health management. Countries are expected to adapt the roadmap to their specific contexts to ensure continuous monitoring and timely interventions as the epidemiological picture evolves.
Vaccine delivery and uptake have also expanded significantly. A total of 4,880,130 doses have been delivered to 16 countries, comprising 1.83 million MVA-BN doses and 3.05 million LC16m8 doses for the DRC. Fourteen countries are actively vaccinating, while 18 have granted regulatory approval for MVA-BN. Two other countries are considering its use for children younger than 12 years. More than 1.99 million doses have been administered, with over 1.92 million people having received at least one dose of a Mpox vaccine. Kenya received an additional 20,000 doses on 9 December 2025, while Liberia is expected to receive 20,000 more doses by 13 December.
